A Partitioned and Heterogeneous Land-Use Simulation Model by Integrating CA and Markov Model

Conversion rule is a key element for cellular automata (CA) model, and it significant challenging issue both domestic international experts. Traditional research regarding CA models often constructs single conversion the entire study area, without differentiating on basis of unique growth features each location. On this, partitioned heterogeneous land-use simulation model (PHLUS) constructed by integrating Markov model: (1) A general area. By establishing land development potential evaluation index system, refined differentiated; (2) coupling with PHLUS can realize in micro macro scales. conducted Pearl River Delta region. The results show that: transforming rules to further distinguish zones, accuracy improved. Compared traditional CA-Markov accuracies 2010 2020 are improved 11.55% 7.14%, respectively. For built-up simulation, errors only 0.7% 0.57%, respectively; Under 2030, cultivated forest will transfer land. area reach 10,919 km2. Guangzhou Shenzhen have greatest development, two cities 2727